A letter from a brother:

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To: xxxxxxx@afcd.gov.hk, yyyyy@afcd.gov.hk,
Subject: Re: Temporary Closure of Mai Po Nature Reserve

Dear XXXXX,

Thank you for your prompt response. But i dont know if you have studied the trends on spread of epidemics in history and the frequency at which it occurs. Prior to the industrial revolution, any kind of epidemic is relatively localized and it happens very infrequently. It is not until the modernization of technology that mobilized people and goods did it turn into a frequent and nasty global problem.

The reason for that is very simple. Prior to the industrial revolution, the barrier to global travel is high, and is reserved only for those looking for adventure and challenge. That is the same for other animals, Migratory birds are the most mobilized in transporting themselves through long distance, but even then for them is a deadly challenge if they are not fit for the task. Thus if any of the migratory birds are infected by any disease or virus, it makes it very difficult, most of the time impossible for them to cover the distance and spread the disease, to create a global epidemic. Thus the physical distance have previously been successful in localizing any kind of epidemic.

There are mainly two factors, the rate at which a new deadly virus is formed in nature, and the velocity at which species (including human) interact. Such is of course a very simplistic assumptions, but assuming all else constant, these would be the major factors that one could study. If we assume that the rate at which a new deadly virus is formed is relatively constant, then the only difference is in velocity of interaction between species. And that as i mentioned before, is drastically increased by modernization of transportation, reducing the barrier and cost of transportation of people and goods.

For these reasons I dont think that Migratory Birds are the culprit of the problem, rather i think they are victim and scapegoat to the real cause of the problem.

The evidence you gave us is not convincing as to why Mai Po is closed down. I think the major concern is the probability of cross infection between inflected birds and human beings and how likely it is for each particular area. So lets look at the facts, the number of birds found infected of H5N1 outside of Mai PO is as you said 16 counts, whereas in comparison none have been found in the mai po area. And during all these times Mai PO is under the intense scrutiny by government officials and WWF themselves, conducting numerous test to see if any birds carry the deadly virus. As far as i know none was found.

Most of the birds found that have contracted H5N1 is found in the urban areas. And when you say wild birds, I dont think you are talking about migratory birds?!?! Population density in urban areas is easily above 30,000 people per square kilometer. Whereas the population density of mai po is insignificant. On top of that there is again the velocity of people, that would have an exponential effect on the chances of human being in contact with infected birds in the urban areas.

Fact of the matter is from a risk perspective, there is a much higher chance of contacting H5N1 on the streets than in Mai Po, and for that reason, the governments action of closing down mai po and not the streets in the urban area seems highly inconsistent, in following the theme of avoiding people from contacting the sick birds and their faecal matter.

It is understandable that the government have to take the necessary measures to ensure the health and safety of the general public from H5N1. But the government havent proved to myself and others who are well informed in the issue the necessity of closing down Mai Po. The explanation is just a lot of random facts pieced together that is not only unconvincing, but also demonstrating how incompetent the government is in finding the source of the problem and combat it head on.

WE sincerely appreciate the gesture from the government to take the precautionary action to temporarily close down mai po. Good old saying of better safe than sorry. But this has dragged on for too long base on fear that is not supported by any facts. And it is time to adapt to the new facts and reopen the area. WWF was prompt to respond and comply with the government in closing mai po area, so in return the government should do the same and promptly re-open it.

Please respond with a more coherent and scientific response of why Mai PO is closed of indefinitely, or else reopen it!

Thanks and Regards
WWWW

This entry was posted on Friday, March 24th, 2006 at 7:22 pm and is filed under Life. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.